On the eve of final warm-ups, who will Gustavsson pick for Paris?
Just 18 players can be selected by Tony Gustavsson for the coming Olympics. Just 18 players who will get to call themselves Olympians, parsed from a field in which many are deserving.
When it comes to coaching at an international level, there are fewer challenges more daunting than picking a squad for the Olympics. For most of the four-year cycle that global football is oft divided into, coaches are dealing with squads of at least 23, looking ahead to continental and Women’s World Cup commitments as they hone a core group of players around carefully managed outgoings and new additions. Then all of a sudden, the Olympics come along and, bang, you’re only able to pick 18 players. Hard times.
Best-laid plans now need to account for playing every few days, against the murderer’s row of opponents that the smaller field at the Olympics throws up – the Matildas will have to face off with the USA, Germany and Zambia just to get out of their group in July – with a significantly reduced pool of players. And even before you get on a plane, you’ve got to look players in the eye and tell them that their hopes of representing their country at the Olympics, one of the most memorable things an athlete can ever do, will not be fulfilled simply because there’s no room where it would normally exist. On an emotional level, it’s one of the hardest things a coach will likely have to do.
This is the challenge that confronts Tony Gustavsson as he prepares to lead the Matildas into two final warm-up friendlies against China in the coming days – the last chance he will get to see his 23 23-players selected for the fixtures in action before he has to make the call on who is going to Paris and who isn’t. The nation’s favourite sporting team, in front of yet more record crowds, doing everything they can to secure a place in the coach’s plans for the Paris Olympics.
Now, when examining the Swede’s record at the Women’s World Cup – where he hardly deviated from a core group of players, the chickens of which came home to roost when they reached the point of exhaustion in a semi-final defeat to England and a third-place playoff loss to Sweden – a cynic might suggest that this reduced player pool may not be as challenging as it is for others. Nonetheless, contingency plans need to be made, various possibilities accounted for, and different plans of attack formulated.
Further, some players probably could be in the mix that, for various reasons, aren’t — Alex Chidiac is an obvious example — but when predicting the squad one needs to examine the landscape as it is.
And of the squad assembled for Gustavsson's two final preparatory fixtures against the reigning Asian champions, just ten can probably be considered almost certainties for Paris, their place on the plane only able to be realistically threatened by injury. The coach said on Thursday that he’d settled on 15 of the names he’s settled on but didn’t elaborate further, leaving us only able to guess as to who will be selected.
In goal, there is Mackenzie Arnold, the Great Wall of Green and Gold who has gone from a three-way battle for the gloves in the build-up to the Women’s World Cup to her nation’s number one. In front of her, Steph Catley, Alanna Kennedy, Clare Hunt, and Ellie Carpenter are all ensconced as their coach’s first-choice back four; the defensive improvements made during the latter half of Gustavsson’s tenure in no small part coinciding with the emergence of Hunt as a reliable partner of Kennedy and the subsequent continuity that has been established.
Kyra Cooney-Cross – fresh off being diagnosed with being “dramatic” by Arsenal teammate Catley after going down during last week’s All Stars game – will take up a place as one of the fulcrums in the midfield in front of this settled backline. But it’s after this where things get complicated.
While Mary Fowler and Emily van Egmond shape as certain selections by Gustavsson and both can play midfield roles, their skill sets have been demonstrated to be best used further up the field in the Swede’s system: the former utilising her instincts and natural touch across the front line and the latter operating as a false nine or second striker/ten. And when accounting for the other certain selections Caitlin Foord and Hayley Raso – not to mention Cooney-Cross’ history on the wing from her time coming through the A-League Women – the reduced squad size means things are getting a bit crowded up top even looking at those on the bubble.
However, before looking at those seeking to press their cases in the coming games, it’s also important to remember that Katrina Gorry, if fit, is also a certain selection, something Gustavsson confirmed on Thursday. Both in and out of possession, the diminutive midfielder serves as the foundation of what so much of this Matildas side can do at their best, brave in her positioning and on the ball as she plays a crucial role in getting her side up the pitch when they’re denied transition. The 31-year-old ruptured her syndesmosis while playing for West Ham in the WSL but told the Sydney Morning Herald earlier this week she was certain she would be ready for Paris.
Gorry’s ability to help the side function in possession during extended periods on the ball is also important to remember in the context of Gustavsson’s repeated declarations post-Women’s World Cup that this is a major focus of his. Hearts were repeatedly left in mouths during the last window against Mexico as the team consistently looked to fill this brief and with the Olympics almost here, a player’s ability to meet this goal must be considered when considering their candidacy.
Both Sharn Freier and Cortnee Vine bring great attacking intent down the wings, for example, but in the context of a crowded frontline and the need to bolster the midfield, there is almost certainly one slot – at most – up for grabs between the two. And given the incumbency bonus that Vine possesses – Gustavsson has frequently spoken about the importance of chemistry in tournament football – she would appear to have the edge in that battle.
Centrally from this battle, the ongoing absence of Sam Kerr and the unfortunate timing of Emily Gielnik’s injury during the last window – breaking down in training ahead of the Mexico game – means that Michelle Heyman is almost certainly on the plane to Paris, with Gustavsson expressly citing players able to play centrally as a priority (which also bolsters Fowler and van Egmond). The A-League Women Golden Boot winner was mostly relegated to the periphery during the game against La Tri as the Matildas stuck to their possession-based experiment but stands as the best pure striker available to Gustavsson; a player that knows where to be and how to put the ball in the back of the net in a manner only a pure nine does.
Looking at the midfield and, for some bizarre reason, Gustavsson has only seen fit to give Clare Wheeler 34 cumulative minutes for the Matildas since the Women’s World Cup – despite her seeing more minutes than any other Australian in the WSL – but she is another who should be on the plane to Paris. The 26-year-old doesn’t possess the level of versatility of others in the mix – albeit she did spend time as a wingback for Everton at the start of the domestic season – but is a midfield anvil, a tough tackling, no-nonsense figure in the middle of the park, amongst the WSL's leaders in tackles, interceptions, blocks, and clearances over the past year. Sure, maybe she doesn’t offer as much going forward as others but she can serve as cover and a springboard for them to spring forward with confidence.
So that’s 14 players. Make it 15 with Teagan Micah, who despite being set to miss the opening fixture of this coming two-game series appears to have the edge over Lydia Williams and Jada Whyman for the back-up keeper role.
Though still only 24 years old, Whyman will need to be wary in coming years and under a possible new regime so that she isn’t overtaken in the keeping ranks by the rise of 22-year-old Morgan Aquino and 19-year-old Chloe Lincoln. But enough tangents, three players to go.
Despite only possessing the three caps, Kaitlyn Torpey’s versatility and the ease with which she appears to have adjusted to life in the Matildas would seemingly put her in a strong position to secure a place on the plane to Paris. Indeed, in a tournament where limited squad sizes and limited recovery time mean that the ability to play a variety of roles is crucial, versatility would ostensibly serve as the key tiebreaker when it comes to figuring out those likely to be in the squad, favouring someone like Tameka Yallop — who has been used across the park by Gustavsson, brings leadership and experience and, again, benefits from that incumbency and chemistry bonus — but perhaps going against someone like Charli Grant, who has struggled to see the field despite being a regular part of squads and would be a back-up on the defensive flanks.
A beloved hometown figure, the extended minutes Grant will receive in Adelaide is probably her last, best chance of staging a run at the 18.
So that’s probably about 17 players picked — albeit the exact makeup is uncertain— with perhaps one area – in an 18-player context – still an obvious concern: centre back. Of the players detailed above, only Hunt and Kennedy are specialists at the position, and both have had their injury issues over the years. Catley can fill in at one of those positions in these positions and shapes as the most likely player to tuck inside if Gustavsson – as he has in the past – opts to move to a back five but playing the Arsenal defender centrally in a back four is a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul. Yes, you can do it, but you’re short-changing yourself by taking her away from her natural position on the left, where she can combine with Foord and get forward to deliver balls into dangerous positions.
Winonah Heatley and Clare Polkinghorne are both a part of the 23-player squad that has been assembled for the two-game series against China. The 22-year-old Heatley brings youth, potential and much improvement since moving to the Damallsvenskan while beloved veteran Polkinghorne brings big-game experience, nouse, leadership, and chemistry with the team – which, again, has been something Gustavsson has hammered home as being critical in his plans in previous tournaments. The former is a figure that shapes as a more long-term option for the squad but at the same time, Gustavsson is out of contract following this tournament, which could skew his thinking somewhat when it comes to the battle. Courtney Nevin has also been used both centrally and on the flanks by the national team setup but her role in the team has been significantly reduced in recent times, suggesting she faces an uphill battle.
Not to be lost sight of either is that though she isn’t fit for this window, national team staff have said that Aivi Luik is likely to have recovered from her hamstring malady in time for the Paris Olympics – adding another puzzle piece to the mix given that, though she hasn't done so for the Matildas in a while, she did make her name as a six.
Given Gustavsson’s history with selections – selecting an injured Kyah Simon for the Women’s World Cup, as an example – nothing can be ruled out here. Whomever one sees as cutting the last place in the squad – heck, whomever one sees as taking up slots 13 through 18 in all likelihood – will not only come down to sober analysis but also one’s personal biases and an ability to get into the headspace of Gustavsson (one of these days Football Australia will allow him to follow through on his offers to sit down and have a coffee with journalists, which would make that a lot easier). Looking at this squad and in the broader context of the squad, how it’s probably the last chance many of these players will have to win silverware on a global level together, it feels like the emotional case for Polkinghorne will put her over the top.
But we won’t know, we can’t know, until the Australian Olympic Committee makes it official. A few players will end up on stand-by lists and maybe be able to hold out some level of hope but it will be a faint one. 18 players will have their dreams realised by Gustavsson in the coming weeks. And while the coach has his fair share of critics, none would envy what is the almost thankless task of arriving at that number.
Image Credit: Football Australia