Via Sistina and Pride of Jenni take centre state in Makybe Diva clash
From Michael Lynch: It's a mares, mares world as Via Sistina and Pride of Jenni take Flemington centre state in Makybe Diva clash
At various points during the Melbourne spring owners and trainers reach crossroads for their horses as they tackle major lead-up events in which their showing will most likely determine their future path.
Saturday's Flemington meeting is very much on brand for such a concept, with a ten race card where ever event will have some bearing on the shape of the spring to come.
The key event is the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600 metres, a contest that will play a pivotal role in the campaigns of several top-class horses over the next six weeks.
The two most interesting contenders are the Tony Ottobre-owned and Ciaron Maher-trained Pride of Jenni, who will seek to rehabilitate her reputation after a less than impressive first-up run in the Memsie Stakes a fortnight ago, and the English import Via Sistina, who laid down a marker for her spring prospects with a win in the Group 1 Winx Stakes in Sydney last month.
A revelation last autumn when she careered to the top of the 1600-2000 metre class, Jenni was sadly off colour in the Memsie when she trailed in fifth of the eight runners, beaten more than five lengths, by Pinstriped.
The latter was gaining his and his trainer, Enver Jusofovic, a first group 1 success and there are plenty who fancy him to confirm the form not just with Jenni but with runner-up Mr Brightside and fourth place getter Antino
But the Chris Waller-trained Via Sistina looms as the fly in the ointment for all of the Victorian-trained gallopers.
Bought for more than $5 million by the Yulong Stud group after impressing in Europe, the daughter of Fastnet Rock is strongly fancied to add to her group 1 tally in the Makybe Diva, in which James McDonald, the Sydney champion jockey, is flying down to ride her.
In the Winx, she was easy in the market at $11 but finished well to beat stablemates Zougotcha and Fangirl. She will be suited by the 1600 metres of the Flemington feature (the Winx is only 1400 metres) and this race looks like an ideal step on the way to the Cox Plate for her.
In a reflection of the current trends, where mega stables are dominating the major races, Waller and Maher between them have four runners, half the field. It wasn't so long ago that most trainers might dream of having a horse good enough to contest an important Group 1 race, but these two, in particular, have such strength in depth that it is a surprise if a Group 1 race takes place and they don't have a runner.
Waller's second string is Atishu, herself a very handy mare with an excellent Flemington record. It was at headquarters that she landed the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes over 2000 metres during the Melbourne Cup carnival last year.
The trip will surely be far too short for Maher's other contender Circle of Fire, who is much better suited over staying trips. He showed that stamina is his strong suit last autumn when he took out the 3200 metre Sydney Cup and his trainer will be looking for him to be putting in his best work towards the finish on Saturday as he begins his Melbourne Cup campaign.
Warmonger, from the Mick Price/Michael Kent junior yard, is another who lends interest to this race. He too is better suited over a distance of ground, as he finished his three-year-old campaign in great style with a 10.4 length win in the Queensland Derby over 2400 metres, having previously finished second in the SA Derby to the filly Coco Sun. He is another who is likely to be doing his best work at the finish.
The Memsie quinella, Pinstriped and Mr Brightside, cannot be ruled out. Both are tough, consistent, quality gallopers who are in the zone and racing over an ideal trip. If there are any chinks in Via Sistina's armour second up they are very capable of exploiting them.
The hardheads and realists will look to the top of the market for a bet around Via Sistina or Mr Brightside.
The romantics will be hoping that Pride of Jenni can bounce back to her best form and blaze her customary trail, drawing the speed from her opponents as rider Declan Bates sets testing fractions that can see her pound to victory. At around $6.50 with SuperTab (compared to Via Sistina's $2.30) there are likely to be quite a few prepared to risk that she can - but the risk is also there that she could blow out.
It is one of the great imponderables of the great game - and why it is such a fascinating puzzle.
Good luck if you are having a bet, and if not, enjoy the spectacle of top-class horses revving up for the spring and also the sight of the three-time Lexus Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, who will be one of the star attractions on the day with the champion mare returning to Flemington to lead out the field for the $750,000 Group 1 named in her honour.