Victory able to deliver Derby distaster to City.
The Melbourne Derby has marked some of Victory's lowest ebbs in recent years. But on Saturday, they have the chance to flick the script by potentially driving a dagger through City's season.
Looking at the numbers, the Melbourne Derby is a fixture that could easily be defined by its parity. 15 wins for Melbourne Victory, 15 wins for Melbourne City and the points shared on 13 occasions, with neither side able to string more than three successive triumphs together and even that only happening on one occasion. Twice already in 2023-24, the two sides have clashed and on both occasions neither was able to find a way past the other, the first time in the feud’s history that back-to-back games have ended goalless. All very even.
And yet despite this, or perhaps because of it, the most memorable meetings between Melbourne’s navy and light blue contingents in recent years have been anything but closely contested. March 6, 2021; Melbourne Victory nil, Melbourne City 6. April 17, 2021; Melbourne City seven, Melbourne Victory nil. The latter fixture saw then-Victory boss Grant Brebner sacked before he’d even had a chance to leave AAMI Park and, even accounting for the wooden spoon that came in the months that followed, arguably represented rock bottom for the club
So, even with the broader theme of parity, City has put Victory fans through a lot in recent years. Which makes the dynamics of Saturday’s encounter, the last derby of the regular season and the first in which Victory will serve as the home side, so intriguing. As for the first time since their foes played in red and white and called themselves Heart, Tony Popovic’s side has the chance to drive a stake through the heart of their nemesis’ finals hopes.
City will enter Saturday sitting seventh on the A-League Men table. Should Western Sydney defeat Brisbane Roar at home on Friday evening, they will open up a seven-point gap in the race for that final playoff place with three games in their regular season remaining.
If City can bring that back down to four again with a win over Victory, or even just reduce it to six points with a draw, they still have a fighting chance; sandwiching home games against tenth-placed Perth and bottom-placed Western United around a trip to face the Wanderers themselves -- a bonafide six-pointer -- in their run home. But should the three-time defending premiers fail to close that gap, they will fall into a position wherein, regardless of what they do, the Wanderers would only need to win one more game in their admittedly very difficult run home – away to Sydney, at home against City, and away against Victory – to mathematically put themselves out of sight.
Consigning their rivals to this scenario, dealing them a blow that sets them on a path to missing finals for the first time since 2013-14, wouldn’t erase the 6-0 or 7-0 blowouts for Victory fans, of course. But they’d undoubtedly revel in it all the same. Even Popovic, loath to provide his opponents with the kind of bulletin board material that would come with saying that was a motivating factor for him or his players, can’t deny that.
“After the game, if that's another gift that we can add to the three points,” he said. “Primarily, three points is the first gift and the most important one. You know if that gives our fans some extra joy, if there's a way we can do that, we'll certainly do our utmost to achieve that. But three points, beating your rival is what's on our mind.”
Of course, Victory has far more motivation on Saturday than just becoming death, the destroyer of City seasons. The four-time champions sit third on the A-League Men table with a month of the campaign, five points behind Central Coast and eight off table-topping Central Coast – who will play each other on Saturday afternoon. They will travel to face the Nix next week before ending the season with two home games against Brisbane and the Wanderers.
The path to a top-two finish and a home final, therefore, is narrow but not unfathomably unrealistic, especially if Bruno Fornaroli can use the brace he netted in the 2-1 win over Perth Glory last weekend to propel himself to another glut of goals. And even if top-spot may prove very difficult, it also bears remembering that, if the Nix win the Premiers’ Plate, they only need to finish second to secure Asian football next season – something a club with the internal perception of its standing that Victory holds is an important achievement, even accounting for the numerous logistical challenges it represents.
“I think we're in a good position to finish the season very strong,” said Popovic. “We had a good performance after the [international] break against Perth. You're a little bit unsure after 17 days without a game, how you will fare. So we're very pleased that the performance was so strong.
“I believe it can still get better after getting that game under our belt and we finished before the break with a win and a draw. So we're in some good form. We believe that we can keep getting stronger.
“We have some great games to look forward to. But we have to still just look at one game at a time and tomorrow is the most important. Then we can focus on the next exciting game which is Wellington.”
In something of a rare luxury for Popovic, he will have a full squad to choose from for Saturday’s derby, reporting no injury concerns amidst a welcome headache at the selection table — City at this stage is unable to confirm if Aurelio Vidmar will be back in the dugout after recovering from illness.
That boon, however, will be short-lived, with Ryan Teague, Nishan Velupillay, and Jordi Valadon all flying to Qatar on Sunday after being named as part of Tony Vidmar’s 23-player squad for the AFC U23 Championships, which doubles as qualifying for the Paris Olympics. Should the Olyroos reach the final four of the tournament – a necessary achievement to ensure qualification – they would not return until the first week of the playoffs.
"We backed out depth throughout the whole year with suspensions and injuries,” said the coach. “The players have done a very good job. We need everyone, that's why we always talk about the squad and talk about how important every player is whether they're playing at that moment or not. And we'll need everyone through this important period in the season.”