With top-two out of reach, Victory target a month of home comforts.
Victory's hopes of a top-two finish may have gone up in smoke but with a month of home fixtures able to be secured, Tony Popovic knows the stakes of Saturday's clash with Brisbane are significant.
After shipping a late, gut-punching goal in as many trips to Wellington, Melbourne Victory’s hopes of a top-two A-League Men finish have been officially consigned to the mathematical scrapheap after losing to the Phoenix last Friday. Instead, the focus now turns to locking up a top-four finish that would secure them a home elimination final and, potentially, four games at AAMI Park in succession at a time of the year when momentum is king.
Heading to Sky Stadium needing all three points to hold any chance of an automatic semifinal berth, Victory’s hopes were washed away in the driving Wellington rain when their skipper Roderick Miranda inadvertently redirected an Oskar van Hattum free kick into his net in the 95th minute, that result coming just over three months on from a 95th minute Alex Rufer penalty snatching the ten-man hosts a 1-1 draw with the visiting Victorians.
Eight points back of the league-leading Central Coast Mariners and Phoenix with just two games remaining on the season, Tony Popovic’s side can no longer make up the ground on the top two even if they record wins over Brisbane Roar and Western Sydney in their remaining two fixtures. Instead, they are playing to keep one of Sydney FC and Macarthur – both three points back – from overhauling them for a top-four spot and forcing them to travel to New South Wales for a sudden-death elimination final; an outcome that, with the Bulls and Sky Blues playing each other on later that evening, would be assured with a win against Roar on Saturday afternoon.
"Of course, we were disappointed in how [the Phoenix game] ended but it was a tough match,” said Popivc. “I thought we really played our part in the game and had some good openings. We don't lose confidence from that performance.
“We've been playing really well at home recently. And [Saturday's fixture against Brisbane is] a chance again to get three points and also an opportunity to cement that home Final. And we're really focused on this game.”
A home final would be significant for Victory. They've not lost many games this season -- they and Wellington are best in the league with just four defeats -- but they've proven much more adept at winning games at home than on the road. Playing 14 times away from home in 2023-24, Victory has been forced to settle for a point on eight occasions as opposed to four wins, compared to their six wins against three draws in the friendly confines of AAMI Park – averaging 1.91 points per home game against 1.43 on the road and, despite playing three more times away, conceding 62% of their goals as the away side.
And with the lower-ranked side hosting the first of the two-legged A-League Men semifinals, a top-two finish for the Victory and subsequent elimination final win would mean they would play four-straight games on Swan St, where they average 12,729 fans, second only to Sydney FC – who have benefited from two home Sydney Derbies, compared to one Melbourne Derby hosted by the Victory – this season.
"We feel we've been building momentum since the international break in terms of performance and results,” said Popovic. “And now it's another opportunity against Brisbane. We lost our last encounter, which was probably... our worst performance of the year and we got what we deserved that day with a defeat.
“Now we're at home, we're coming towards the last couple of games this season before finals. It's an important match to really put forward another good performance. We know that a win will be key.”
Sitting ninth on the A-League Men table, Brisbane's finals hopes aren’t technically dead, but they’ve been rendered so unlikely to be absurd after they backed up a rousing 2-1 win over Western Sydney by falling 2-0 to Newcastle at Lang Park this weekend. Sitting on 29 points, there is in theory a path to finals that would require Adelaide to lose their remaining two games, City and the Wanderers to draw this weekend before losing next week, and Brisbane to win out – which would leave them level with the Wanderers on 35 points and ten wins – but, even then, the Roar would also need to do something about a goal difference that currently sits at -12.
Outside of absent Olyroos Nishan Velupillay, Jordi Valadon, and Ryan Teague, Popovic said that he would have a full squad to choose from for the fixture – which will serve as Victory’s member recognition round – and said that, especially after their turgid performance in their previous meeting, he wouldn’t take Roar for granted.
“They've played well,” said the Victory boss. “That first half against Newcastle, they were very good. Maybe they haven't got enough reward for some of the performances they've had. We understand they're a dangerous team.
“We know what happened last encounter. So certainly they'll be respected by us, as they should be. We've just got to focus on our performance, and what we do with and without the ball. Know that we have an opponent that will not give us anything and that we'll have to earn the three points.
“We understand that, we expect that, and we've got to produce the performance we're after on the pitch.”